COVID-19 Trends for the USA for Next Week

March 23, 2020

From Ahvie Herskowitz, MD

Our hearts go out to all who are suffering around the globe from COVID-19. As a former New Yorker, I am particularly concerned and upset for our friends and neighbors in NYC and pray for their wellbeing.

As you can see from the chart below, the USA death numbers from WHO are now above 400 (actual numbers from US sources are now above 500, as of this morning). We passed 100 deaths on March 19, as did the United Kingdom; Italy reached this threshold two weeks earlier; France on March 16, and Spain on March 14. The slope of our USA mortality rate is higher than in the United Kingdom (as of today, we have almost doubled their mortality rate).

Based on the European experience, five days from now, we can expect roughly a 5-7 fold increase in deaths in the USA. If we follow in Italy’s footsteps, we will have a 10-fold increase 10-14 days from now. THIS DOES NOT MEAN WE WILL CONTINUE ON THIS PATH MUCH LONGER, SINCE THE INCREASE IN MORTALITY RATES IN ITALY ARE MUCH LOWER THIS PAST WEEK, AS COMPARED TO TWO WEEKS AGO!!!

(Click to Enlarge)

In California, we are staying more stable, and in San Francisco, our mortality curves remain flat. Let’s hope the same holds true for San Jose, Sacramento, and Los Angeles.

LESSON: Regions that have implemented “Shelter At Home” earlier, seem to be doing better. THIS WORKS!! And in combination with testing and quarantining, THESE IMPLEMENTATIONS REALLY WORK!! LOOK AT KOREA and their incredible data with stable numbers!


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About Ahvie Herskowitz, MD

Dr. Herskowitz’s extensive training includes a medical degree from The Albert Einstein College of Medicine, residencies in Anatomic Pathology and Internal Medicine, and Fellowship training in Cardiology at The Johns Hopkins Medical Center. During his 12 years at Johns Hopkins, he became Associate Professor of Medicine and Immunology and Molecular Microbiology and led a research team in the study of molecular and immunological mechanisms of inflammation, autoimmunity, ischemia, heart transplantation rejection and congestive heart failure.

Dr. Herskowitz’s latest academic appointment was as Clinical Professor of Medicine at UC San Francisco. To learn more about Dr. Herskowitz, you can read it bio here.


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