COVID-19: Analysis and Predictions for the Beginning of April
March 30, 2020
From Ahvie Herskowitz, MD
Dr. David Ho is a virus expert from Cal Tech who was interviewed ten days ago and published on March 20th. On March 18, there were 8,700 worldwide deaths from COVID19. Today, ten days later, there are over 36,000 deaths — the calculated doubling time worldwide is now every 4.5–5 days.
After we in Europe and the USA reach our respective peaks over the next month, the worldwide numbers will likely be dominated by South America, Africa, the Middle East, and other areas that may remain hidden due to censorship (i.e., Pakistan).
Let’s see what may happen WORLDWIDE in the 1, 2, and 4 week period? Based on a long list of assumptions and the data today, worldwide mortality will likely rise from 36,000 today to 60,000–80,000 in one week and up to 250,000–500,000 worldwide deaths in one month.
Where are we in the USA?
We may likely see death rates rise from the current roughly 2,800 today to 5,000+ in 7–10 days. The USA remains a small minority of worldwide deaths, but let’s keep this in context of per capita — our mortality rate has remained steady at <2.0% (1.7% today vs worldwide 4.7%) even though the number of USA cases appear to be leading the world.
Every day, we are guided by the data, and reliably predict where hotspots are blossoming and when a region has seen its peak effect for “the first wave.” We can predict these with some level of confidence. While we don’t know how NY State will handle their regional crisis, and how other high-risk regions will fare, more data is suggesting that Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin is a very effective therapy. The sooner we gain access and test this combination and other “experimental” therapies to treat symptomatic persons, the faster the surge effect on our medical system will be abated.
About Ahvie Herskowitz, MD
Dr. Herskowitz’s extensive training includes a medical degree from The Albert Einstein College of Medicine, residencies in Anatomic Pathology and Internal Medicine, and Fellowship training in Cardiology at The Johns Hopkins Medical Center. During his 12 years at Johns Hopkins, he became Associate Professor of Medicine and Immunology and Molecular Microbiology and led a research team in the study of molecular and immunological mechanisms of inflammation, autoimmunity, ischemia, heart transplantation rejection and congestive heart failure.
Dr. Herskowitz’s latest academic appointment was as Clinical Professor of Medicine at UC San Francisco. To learn more about Dr. Herskowitz, you can read it bio here.
About Devin Wilson, ND
Dr. Devin Wilson is a licensed Naturopathic Doctor in the state of California. He treats an array of acute and chronic diseases using a holistic and integrative approach to health. Dr. Wilson is also a health consultant, researcher and writer focusing on anti-aging and longevity medicine.
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