COVID-19: Timing is Everything!

April 1, 2020

From Ahvie Herskowitz, MD

Timing is Everything! New York was one week late with Shelter-in-Place, and likely, there were more days of excess travel into Manhattan from Brooklyn, and Queens.

The following graph shows a higher slope of increase in New York as compared to all other states. The peak surge in California will be clearly lower than in New York.

New York City is a special case! Why? Because…

  • They were late to start social distancing.
  • They have a higher density of population.
  • It is the nation’s travel hub from Europe.
  • There were multiple clusters in New Rochelle, Manhattan, Queens, and Brooklyn

Unless a large number of new clusters in large U.S. cities will develop (i.e., nursing homes), peak surges in locations outside of New York State should be slower to develop and peak at lower levels than New York State!

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About Ahvie Herskowitz, MD

Dr. Herskowitz’s extensive training includes a medical degree from The Albert Einstein College of Medicine, residencies in Anatomic Pathology and Internal Medicine, and Fellowship training in Cardiology at The Johns Hopkins Medical Center. During his 12 years at Johns Hopkins, he became Associate Professor of Medicine and Immunology and Molecular Microbiology and led a research team in the study of molecular and immunological mechanisms of inflammation, autoimmunity, ischemia, heart transplantation rejection and congestive heart failure.

Dr. Herskowitz’s latest academic appointment was as Clinical Professor of Medicine at UC San Francisco. To learn more about Dr. Herskowitz, you can read it bio here.


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Any and all statements and opinions are provided for educational information and are not intended for medical diagnosis. As with all medical treatments and procedures, results may vary on an individual basis.

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