COVID-19 Cases Are Plummeting

March 2, 2021

From Ahvie Herskowitz, MD

There is light at the end of the tunnel!

COVID-19 cases and deaths are declining, especially since February 1. In the United States, the COVID-19 fatality rate has remained a steady 1.8% since mid-December, though the average new cases per day have dropped since the beginning of February from roughly 44 in 100,000 people to 21 in 100,000 people. A similar pattern is seen in average deaths per day: 0.95 dropping to 0.62 deaths in 100,000 people.

New Confirmed COVID-19 Cases and Deaths Per Day (Normalized By Population)

Administration of COVID-19 vaccines began in the United States in December 2020, and roughly 77 million doses have been administered (a combination of Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines) as of this week. With the US administering about 1.8 million shots a day, roughly 8% of the population has received both doses with a total of 15% of the population receiving at least 1 dose.

The most vulnerable population of people, those 65 years old and above, make up roughly 80% of all COVID-19 deaths and only 17% of the population in the US (52.5 million people). This group accounts for only 30% of all people that received at least the first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine within the first month, yet nursing home deaths have fallen more than 60% between late December and early February. We’ve now used 77% of our total 102 million delivered doses, and we would still need to vaccinate roughly 41 million more people to fully vaccinate those over the age of 65 with two doses.

If we continue to focus on vaccinating the more vulnerable populations of people, the numbers of deaths and hospitalizations will likely continue to drop, and may drop rapidly in the next month.

Disclaimer: This information is formulated as my opinion, and I recommend that any individual speak with their primary doctor about their own personal health concerns and questions about COVID-19 vaccinations.


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About Ahvie Herskowitz, MD

Dr. Herskowitz’s extensive training includes a medical degree from The Albert Einstein College of Medicine, residencies in Anatomic Pathology and Internal Medicine, and Fellowship training in Cardiology at The Johns Hopkins Medical Center. During his 12 years at Johns Hopkins, he became Associate Professor of Medicine and Immunology and Molecular Microbiology and led a research team in the study of molecular and immunological mechanisms of inflammation, autoimmunity, ischemia, heart transplantation rejection and congestive heart failure.

Dr. Herskowitz’s latest academic appointment was as Clinical Professor of Medicine at UC San Francisco. To learn more about Dr. Herskowitz, you can read it bio here.


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