Lessons From Wuhan

The Case for Lockdowns in New York City, Seattle and Other Major Cities in the Future

(Extracted From An Analysis By Tomas Pueyo)

On January 21st, the number of new diagnosed cases in Wuhan begins to explode: there were around 100 new cases. In reality, there were 1,500 new cases that day, growing exponentially. But the authorities didn’t know that. What they knew was that suddenly there were 100 new cases of this new illness.

Two days later, authorities shut down Wuhan. At that point, the number of diagnosed daily new cases was ~400. Note that number: they made a decision to close the city with just 400 new cases in a day. In reality, there were 2,500 new cases that day, but they didn’t know that.

The day after, another 15 cities in Hubei shut down.

Up until Jan 23rd, when Wuhan closes, the virus is growing exponentially. True cases were exploding. As soon as Wuhan shuts down, cases slow down. On Jan 24th, when another 15 cities shut down, the number of true cases grinds to a halt. Two days later, the maximum number of true cases was reached, and it has gone down ever since.

You can read the full article here: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

Coronavirus Confirmed Cases in US Major Cities

State
Date Reported
Cases Reported (CDC)
Cases Reported (General)
New Cases (since 3/12)
Deaths
California
3/14
224
248
49
5
New York
3/14
325
524
199
1
Washington
3/14
457
568
111
37
Total Cases Reported by CDC
 
1629
 
 
41

SOURCE:

  • https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/03/health/us-coronavirus-cases-state-by-state/index.html
  • https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-united-states-coronavirus-outbreak/
  • https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/OPA/Pages/NR20-020.aspx
  • https://www.health.ny.gov/diseases/communicable/coronavirus/
  • https://www.doh.wa.gov/Emergencies/Coronavirus
  • https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-in-us.html

NOTE: Data is confirmed and presumptive positive cases of COVID-19 reported to the CDC or tests at the CDC since January 21, 2020.

Statistics Provided by the World Health Organization (WHO)

  • In the US the total confirmed cases doubled in 3 days.
  • 277 new confirmed cases in the US (as of 3.13.2020)
  • 1264 total cases in the US as of 3.13.2020
  • Approximately 550 new cases in the US (on 3.13.2020)
  • 8 new deaths in the US (on of 3.13.2020)
  • 2,499 total cases in the US (as of 3.14.2020)
  • 55 total number of deaths in the US (as of 3.14.2020)
  • 49 total number of recovered in the US (as of 3.14.2020)
  • 10,896 new cases worldwide (on 3.13.2020)

SOURCE:

  • https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
  • https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200313-sitrep-53-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=adb3f72_2
  • https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

About Ahvie Herskowitz, MD

Dr. Herskowitz’s extensive training includes a medical degree from The Albert Einstein College of Medicine, residencies in Anatomic Pathology and Internal Medicine, and Fellowship training in Cardiology at The Johns Hopkins Medical Center. During his 12 years at Johns Hopkins, he became Associate Professor of Medicine and Immunology and Molecular Microbiology and led a research team in the study of molecular and immunological mechanisms of inflammation, autoimmunity, ischemia, heart transplantation rejection and congestive heart failure.

Dr. Herskowitz’s latest academic appointment was as Clinical Professor of Medicine at UC San Francisco. To learn more about Dr. Herskowitz, you can read it bio here.

      

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